Police & Statistics & New Accident Initiative

[D-Rider]

Today I heard a news bulletin containing a shocking report that this year there has been a dramatic rise in motorcycle fatalities in Warwickshire and as a result the police will be launching an initiative.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-co ... e-14441595

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All sounds good - we don't want those that ride bikes being killed or injured.

Then I heard that the stats this is based on. There were 2 bike fatalities last year but there have already been 5 this year - hence a supposed dramatic increase.
Unhappy news but with so much traffic, I think these numbers are statistically insignificant as they are so low - particularly when there is much randomness in the events that lead to accidents.

So I wondered what is the "normal" rate of biking fatalities within Warwickshire and found this:
http://www.safer-neighbourhoods.co.uk/y ... le-deaths/

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..... so that's 29 in 4 years - an average of just over 7 per year.
Now, none of us want people to be dying on their bikes but one has to wonder why they are being so selective in their statistics to compare this year (for which the news on fatalities isn't great) with last year alone - which was uncharacteristically low.

Dig a little further and the police actually publish a breakdown of the injury figures over the past few years:
http://www.warwickshire.police.uk/crime ... y/P2Wstats

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Now, I could be wrong, but the result of an accident being a fatality or being a serious injury is something that I imagine is much more down to how the circumstances conspire. I'm guessing that the action the police (or anyone) may take cannot target fatalities alone .... so we need to look at the overall picture above of fatalities and serious injuries combined ....... and it appears that at this moment in time we are headed for a particularly low number in comparison to previous years.

The other statistic I looked for was the cause of these accidents - how much of it is due to poor riding, how much down to the woeful state of our roads and how much of it is down to the driving habits of those that drive 4-wheelers?
Unfortunately I couldn't find the answers to those questions. Will this Police initiative be aimed at more than just those who ride bikes ? ..... well it would be nice to think so as that may have a more positive effect on future casualties.

Were I a cynical chap, I might just wonder whether these carefully, selected, non-representative statistics have been pulled out at this time so that Warwickshire Constabulary can "justify" their approach to the Bulldog Bash - that they have tried to close down in recent years but were foiled as it was supported by Stratford Council and local residents - the local residents also being unhappy with over-the top police traffic restrictions that they imposed in recent years, along with an incredible bill for policing.

[Samray]

That first article gives the impression that the spokesman is a police officer rather than a Road 'Safety' Unit and Highways Agency bod.

[BikerGran]

It's the timining of course.

Almost makes me want to go to the Bulldog just to spite them! Talk about how to win friends and influence people - it's unfortunate that they are pursuing the course that's most likely to ensure that bikers take no notice of their safety signs - which just might, possibly, otherwise make one or two think?

[Samray]

This was today's Police press release on the subject:

08 August 2011 13:44
Bulldog Bash 2011 policing operation

As the mobile police station visits villages near to the Bulldog Bash event this week, officers will be reassuring residents about the well planned policing operation which is in place.

Speaking about the policing of the event, ACC Neil Brunton said: "The views of residents have once again been taken into account and like last year the policing of the event will allow easier access into and out of the villages with no permanent static road closures around the Long Marston site. This does not mean that roads will not be closed at all, but if closures are required, they will be put on for short periods and will be operationally dictated as to their location. If events dictate that traffic flow does need to be temporarily altered, officers will endeavour to cause as little disruption as possible."

He also said: "The vast majority of people attending Bulldog Bash are decent law-abiding motorcyclists or music fans and we do not wish to spoil their enjoyment of the event. But we have a clear duty of care to everyone attending the event, to residents and to people passing through the area and we will do everything we can to protect people from harm and loss. This years policing operation is designed to be proportionate to the overall threat assessment and will remain flexible and unpredictable to deter criminal activity and enforcement activity will be intelligence led to target those intent on causing harm."

http://onlinenews.warwickshire.police.u ... tion/13567

[snapdragon]

ahhh so that shooting (was it last year ?) is being added to the road figures not the crime figures?

[BikerGran]

This was today's Police press release on the subject:

08 August 2011 13:44
This years policing operation is designed to be proportionate.................... and enforcement activity will be intelligence led......."

http://onlinenews.warwickshire.police.u ... tion/13567

Ha ha ha - those are the buzz words they try to put into all reports and incident messages - I think they get points for how many times they can use them!

[Willopotomas]

The shooting was 2007 I think. Typical of the Warwickshire lot. As long as the toffs are happy, they couldn't give a toss. Boils my piss..

Sounds like some pencil pushing pricks are making up stuff to try and keep themselves in a job.. Hmm.. Nowt that sounds familiar..